UK-Elect General Election Forecast, April 9th 2026.

Reform UK Short By 94.

In this UK-Elect General Election forecast Reform UK are projected to win 231 seats, 94 short of a majority. This gives them 113 more than the Conservative Party's 108 seats with the Labour Party on 90 seats, the Liberal Democrats on 82, the Green Party on 64 seats and the Scottish National Party on 42 seats. For other party seat totals and more information see the detailed results below.

The UK-Elect 13.2 method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish and Welsh percentages. The number of forecast iterations was set to 10. Incumbency and tactical voting calculations were enabled at default setting values.

GB percentages used were: Reform UK 26%, Lab 20%, Con 19%, Green 16%, LD 13%, SNP 2.75%, Plaid Cymru 1%. Scottish percentages used were: SNP 32%, Reform UK 21%, Lab 17%, Con 11%, LD 9%, Green 9%. Welsh percentages used were: Plaid Cymru 29%, Reform UK 24%, Lab 14%, Con 12%, Green 12%, LD 6%. All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls. No attempt was made to forecast Northern Ireland using updated percentages.

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See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   Northern England   Midlands   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd
Forecast Data File:
UK Top 3 in every seat - CSV file (for Excel etc.)

Party Seats Change Reform UK 231 +226 Conservative 108 -13 Labour 90 -321 Liberal Democrat 82 +10 Green 64 +60 SNP 42 +33 Plaid Cymru 13 +9 Sinn Fein 7 - DUP 5 - SDLP 2 - Independent 2 -4 Others 4 - Reform UK short by 94 Note: +/- comparisons are with 2024 UK General Election. See also: UK Top 3 in every seat (CSV)

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.

See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.

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