UK-Elect General Election Forecast, July 3rd 2024 - Final Pre-Election Forecast.

Labour Overall Majority of 204.

This is the final UK-Elect General Election forecast for the 2024 UK General Election. It takes account of opinion poll updates released on the day before the election. In this forecast the Labour Party are projected to win 426 seats giving them a majority of 204. This gives them 310 more than the Conservative Party's 116 seats with the Liberal Democrats on 57 seats, the Scottish National Party on 17, Reform UK 8, the Democratic Unionist Party 8, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 4, Green 3, SDLP 2, and Others 2.

The latest UK-Elect 12.4.55 method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish and Welsh percentages. The number of forecast iterations was set to 10.

The final candidate lists were used for this forecast, taking account of the exact candidates standing in each constituency. Constituency opinion polls in the last 6 months were also considered, as were by-elections since the previous UK General Election. Incumbency and tactical voting calculations were enabled. Tactical voting was set to a maximum of 25%. The "assume polls prompt using actual candidates for each constituency" option was set to true.

GB percentages used were: Lab 39.75%, Con 22.5%, Reform 15.75%, LD 11.75%, Green 6.5%, SNP 2.7%, Plaid Cymru 0.6%. Scottish percentages used were: Lab 34%, SNP 32%, Con 15.5%, LD 8%, Reform 6.5%, Green 3%. Welsh percentages used were: Lab 42%, Con 18%, Reform 16%, Plaid Cymru 11.5%, LD 6.5%, Green 5%. All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls, including many of the final pre-election polls. No attempt was made to forecast Northern Ireland using updated percentages.

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UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   Northern England   Midlands   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd
Forecast Data File:
UK Top 3 in every seat - CSV file (for Excel etc.)

Party Seats Change Labour 426 +226 Conservative 116 -256 Liberal Democrat 57 +49 SNP 17 -31 Reform UK 8 +8 DUP 8 - Sinn Fein 7 - Plaid Cymru 4 +2 Green 3 +2 SDLP 2 - Others 2 - Labour Majority 204 Note: +/- comparisons are with 2019 UK General Election notional results (which used different constituency boundaries). See also: UK Top 3 in every seat (CSV)

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.

See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.

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