UK-Elect General Election Forecast, June 4th 2024.

Labour Overall Majority of 154.

Note: this is not the latest UK-Elect forecast. The latest forecast can be accessed here: Latest UK-Elect Forecast

In this UK-Elect General Election forecast the Labour Party are projected to win 401 seats giving them a majority of 154. This gives them 223 more than the Conservative Party's 178 seats with the Liberal Democrats on 31 seats, the Scottish National Party on 16, the Democratic Unionist Party 8, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 2, Green 1, and Others 3.

The UK-Elect method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish and Welsh percentages.

Current candidate lists were not used for this forecast. Future UK-Elect forecasts will take account of the exact candidates standing in each constituency, after the official candidates lists for each constituency are finalised.

GB percentages used were: Lab 44, Con 23%, Reform 12%, LD 9%, SNP 2.8%, Green 6%, Plaid Cymru 0.5%. Scottish percentages used were: Lab 37%, SNP 32%, Con 17%, LD 8%, Reform 3%, Green 1.5%. Welsh percentages used were: Lab 44%, Con 21%, Reform 13.5%, Plaid Cymru 13%, LD 5%, Green 2%. All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls. No attempt was made to forecast Northern Ireland using updated percentages.

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See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   Northern England   Midlands   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd

Party Seats Change Labour 401 +201 Conservative 178 -194 Liberal Democrat 31 +23 SNP 16 -32 DUP 8 - Sinn Fein 7 - Plaid Cymru 3 +1 SDLP 2 - Green 1 - Reform UK 0 - Others 3 - Labour Majority 154 Note: +/- comparisons are with the notional results for the 2019 UK General Election (which used different constituency boundaries). See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.

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