UK-Elect General Election Forecast, June 23rd 2024.

Labour Overall Majority of 210.

Note: this is not the latest UK-Elect forecast. The latest forecast can be accessed here: Latest UK-Elect Forecast

In this UK-Elect General Election forecast the Labour Party are projected to win 429 seats giving them a majority of 210. This gives them 302 more than the Conservative Party's 127 seats with the Liberal Democrats on 48 seats, the Scottish National Party on 19, the Democratic Unionist Party 8, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 3, SDLP 2, Green 1, and Others 2.

The UK-Elect 12.4.48 method (which includes fine-tuning adjustments targeted at the 2024 General Election, including a lower rating for the UNS based portions of the calculations) was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish and Welsh percentages. The number of forecast iterations was set to 10.

The final candidate lists were used for this forecast, taking account of the exact candidates standing in each constituency. Constituency opinion polls in the last 6 months were also considered, as were by-elections since the previous UK General Election. Incumbency and tactical voting calculations were enabled.

GB percentages used were: Lab 41%, Con 20%, Reform 17%, LD 11.5%, SNP 2.9%, Green 6%, Plaid Cymru 0.6%. Scottish percentages used were: Lab 35.5%, SNP 32.5%, Con 14%, LD 7.5%, Reform 5.5%, Green 4%. Welsh percentages used were: Lab 44.5%, Con 19%, Reform 15%, Plaid Cymru 12%, LD 5%, Green 3.5%. All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls. No attempt was made to forecast Northern Ireland using updated percentages.

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See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   Northern England   Midlands   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd
Forecast Data File:
UK Top 3 in every seat - CSV file (for Excel etc.)

Party Seats Change Labour 429 +229 Conservative 127 -245 Liberal Democrat 48 +40 SNP 19 -29 DUP 8 - Sinn Fein 7 - Plaid Cymru 4 +2 Reform UK 3 +3 SDLP 2 - Green 1 - Others 2 - Labour Majority 210 Note: +/- comparisons are with 2019 UK General Election notional results (which used different constituency boundaries). See also: UK Top 3 in every seat (CSV)

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.

See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.

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