UK-Elect General Election Forecast, July 3rd 2024.

Labour Overall Majority of 192.

Note: this is not the final UK-Elect General Election 2024 forecast. The latest forecast can be accessed here: Final UK-Elect General Election 2024 Forecast

In this UK-Elect General Election forecast the Labour Party are projected to win 420 seats giving them a majority of 192. This gives them 297 more than the Conservative Party's 123 seats with the Liberal Democrats on 57 seats, the Scottish National Party on 16, Reform UK 8, the Democratic Unionist Party 8, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 4, Green 3, SDLP 2, and Others 2.

The latest UK-Elect 12.4.55 method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish and Welsh percentages. The number of forecast iterations was set to 10.

The final candidate lists were used for this forecast, taking account of the exact candidates standing in each constituency. Constituency opinion polls in the last 6 months were also considered, as were by-elections since the previous UK General Election. Incumbency and tactical voting calculations were enabled. Tactical voting was set to a maximum of 27.5%. The "assume polls prompt using actual candidates for each constituency" option was set to true.

GB percentages used were: Lab 39.75%, Con 23%, Reform 15.75%, LD 11.75%, Green 6%, SNP 2.7%, Plaid Cymru 0.6%. Scottish percentages used were: Lab 35%, SNP 31%, Con 15.5%, LD 8%, Reform 6.5%, Green 3%. Welsh percentages used were: Lab 42%, Con 19%, Reform 16%, Plaid Cymru 11.5%, LD 5.5%, Green 5%. All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls. No attempt was made to forecast Northern Ireland using updated percentages.

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See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   Northern England   Midlands   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd
Forecast Data File:
UK Top 3 in every seat - CSV file (for Excel etc.)

Party Seats Change Labour 420 +220 Conservative 123 -249 Liberal Democrat 57 +49 SNP 16 -32 Reform UK 8 +8 DUP 8 - Sinn Fein 7 - Plaid Cymru 4 +2 Green 3 +2 SDLP 2 - Others 2 - Labour Majority 192 Note: +/- comparisons are with 2019 UK General Election notional results (which used different constituency boundaries). See also: UK Top 3 in every seat (CSV)

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.

See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.

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